Economy

Please click on the links below for monthly reports from the BCC and the Bank of England in relation to the current state of the economy.

April 2017

BCC Economic Review

  • BCC upgrades its UK economic growth forecast for 2017, but downgrades outlook for 2018.  
  • Inflation breaches the Bank of England's 2% target as earnings growth continues to slow.
  • Federal Reserve raises US interest rates and more rises are expected this year.

March 2017

BCC Economic Review

  • UK GDP growth for Q4 upgraded to 0.7%, but growth for 2016 revised down to 4-year low
  • UK retail sales weakens further as inflation continues to rise and earnings growth slows
  • German GDP growth picks-up in Q4 as Greece’s economy shrinks

February 2017

BCC Economic Review

  • UK economy grew by 0.6% in Q4 2016 with services dominating GDP growth.
  • Falling value of sterling feeding through into higher inflation and squeezing real earnings.  
  • GDP growth in the world's two largest economies - USA and China - slowed in 2016. 

January 2017

BCC Economic Review

  • Q3 UK GDP growth revised up and latest QES points to solid growth in Q4.
  • Higher inflation and uncertainty over Brexit likely to weigh on UK’s growth prospects.
  • US Federal Reserve raises interest rates and further rises are likely in the coming months.

December 2016

BCC Economic Review

  • Q3 UK GDP growth unrevised with business investment supporting growth in the quarter.
  • OBR downgrades its economic and fiscal outlook for the UK.
  • US GDP growth revised up, but the pick-up in Indian GDP growth unlikely to be sustained.

November 2016

BCC Economic Review

  • UK economy continues to grow at a moderate pace, but growth remains reliant on services. 
  • The declining value of sterling set to push inflation higher in the coming months.
  • US economic growth at two-year high, boosted by stronger investment and exports.  


October 2016

BCC Economic Review

  • UK GDP growth unrevised in Q2, with consumer spending driving growth in the quarter.
  • UK set for a prolonged period of rising inflation, as the jobs market continues to strengthen. 
  • US interest rates likely to rise by the end of 2016 despite downward revision to growth.  

September 2016

BCC Economic Review

  • UK GDP growth unrevised in Q2, with consumer spending driving growth in the quarter.
  • UK set for a prolonged period of rising inflation, as the jobs market continues to strengthen. 
  • US interest rates likely to rise by the end of 2016 despite downward revision to growth.  

August 2016

BCC Economic Review

  • UK GDP growth picks-up in Q2, but the latest QES indicates weaker growth.  
  • Bank of England cuts UK interest rates to a new record low of 0.25% and expands QE.
  • Eurozone GDP growth weakens in Q2, while consumer spending boosts US GDP growth.


July 2016

BCC Economic Review

  • UK GDP growth unrevised in Q1 with consumer spending likely to support growth in Q2.
  • UK interest rates could fall, while the government abandons its target for a budget surplus.
  • Too early to gauge the economic impact of Brexit, despite financial market volatility. 

June 2016

BCC Economic Review

  • Q1 UK GDP growth unrevised, amid weakening investment and a record high trade deficit. 
  • Bank of England cuts forecast for UK growth, with deficit reduction proving a real challenge.
  • Japan avoids another recession as growth in the Eurozone picks up in Q1.

May 2016

BCC Economic Review

  • UK GDP growth slowed in Q1 2016, as manufacturing and construction output fell.
  • BCC QES confirms UK growth is slowing with key survey indicators either static or declining.
  • IMF downgrades global economic outlook, as US and Chinese GDP growth slows  


April 2016

BCC Economic Review

  • Q4 2015 UK GDP growth revised up but current account deficit hits record high.  
  • OBR UK growth forecasts downgraded amid weaker global outlook and UK productivity.
  • UK's fiscal outlook weakens, but OBR still predicts a small budget surplus by 2019.   

 


March 2016

BCC Economic Review

  • Q4 2015 UK GDP growth unrevised, with the service sector continuing to support growth. 
  • UK goods trade deficit and services trade surplus reach record highs.
  • India's economy outperforms China, as Eurozone growth hits four-year high. 

 


February 2016

BCC Economic Review

  • GDP growth in the UK weakened in 2015, with the construction sector back in recession
  • UK unemployment drops to ten-year low, but earnings growth continues to weaken
  • GDP growth in the world’s two largest economies slows, as IMF cuts global outlook   

 


January 2016

BCC Economic Review

  • Q3 UK GDP growth revised downwards with slower than expected service sector growth.
  • The Q4 2015 QES signals slower near-term growth for the UK economy.
  • US raises interest rates as monetary policy loosens further in the Eurozone. 

 


December 2015

BCC Economic Review

  • Q3 UK GDP growth unrevised with net trade a major drag on growth in the quarter.
  • OBR forecasts steady UK growth and an improving fiscal outlook.
  • US GDP growth revised up, but Japan falls back into recession once again.

 


November 2015

BCC Economic Review

  • UK GDP growth slows in Q3 as construction output falls
  • UK slips back into deflation as the employment rate hits record high
  • Chinese growth drops to six-year low as the outlook for the global economy weakens

Bank of England Inflation Report

Bank of England October Update

  • Activity had continued to grow at a solid rate on a year earlier, driven by services and construction output, but the pace of growth had eased a little overall. In particular, manufacturing growth had slowed, partly reflecting the effects of sterling’s earlier appreciation and subdued world demand on export supply chains.
  • Housing market activity had picked up modestly, though it remained constrained by the number of properties available for sale. High levels of competition were reported among lenders, which had led to falls in mortgage rates and increased remortgaging activity.
  • Employment intentions indicated continued growth in the workforce. Recruitment difficulties were reported to be contributing to rising wage pressure in the service sector, but weak consumer price inflation had reduced the pressure on some employers to raise pay growth.

 


October 2015

BCC Economic Review

  • UK growth in Q2 unrevised with the service sector and consumer spending driving growth
  • The QES for Q3 2015 signals moderate economic growth over the next year
  • US interest rates kept on hold for now amid continued global uncertainty

Bank of England October Update

  • Activity had continued to grow at a solid rate on a year earlier, driven by services and construction output, but the pace of growth had eased a little overall. In particular, manufacturing growth had slowed, partly reflecting the effects of sterling’s earlier appreciation and subdued world demand on export supply chains.
  • Housing market activity had picked up modestly, though it remained constrained by the number of properties available for sale. High levels of competition were reported among lenders, which had led to falls in mortgage rates and increased remortgaging activity.
  • Employment intentions indicated continued growth in the workforce. Recruitment difficulties were reported to be contributing to rising wage pressure in the service sector, but weak consumer price inflation had reduced the pressure on some employers to raise pay growth.

September 2015

BCC Economic Review

  • UK economic growth in Q2 unrevised, as the trade deficit narrows and investment rises. 
  • UK unemployment rises again, but earnings continue to outstrip inflation.
  • US growth is revised up sharply, but China weighing heavily on the global outlook.

Bank of England National Summary (Quarterly Summary, Q3 2015)

  • Activity had generally grown solidly on a year earlier, with contacts attributing increased demand to rises in real incomes and credit availability. Growth among export-oriented companies had been subdued overall.
  • In property markets, demand for commercial property had increased alongside economic activity, and investment into the sector had remained strong. Housing market activity had picked up by less than many contacts had expected.
  • Recruitment difficulties had increased in recent months, with signs of building pressure on labour cost growth in the service sector. But services price inflation had remained modest and goods prices were lower than a year ago.


August 2015

BCC Economic Review

  • UK economy grew by 0.7% in Q2, driven by a strong output from services and oil and gas
  • Labour market conditions in the UK weaken and inflation falls back to zero
  • Outlook for global growth weakens amid continued concern over China and Greece

Bank of England National Summary

  • Growth of consumer services turnover had eased slightly. Retail sales values growth had been steady
  • Housing market activity had been stronger than at the start of the year, despite a continued shortage of properties available for sale
  • Investment intentions had edged down for manufacturing, but remained consistent with moderate growth overall

July 2015

BCC Economic Review

  • Q1 UK GDP growth revised up, driven by less pessimistic construction output figures
  • Latest economic data suggests a pick-up in UK economic growth in Q2
  • Eurozone economy showing signs of improvement, but Greece is on the brink

Bank of England National Summary

  • Growth of consumer services turnover had been steady, but retail sales values growth had eased.
  • Housing market transactions had picked up and house prices had risen.
  • Investment intentions pointed to moderate growth in capital expenditure over the next twelve months.

June 2015

BCC Economic Review

  • UK GDP growth unrevised in Q1, weighed down by a widening trade deficit.
  • UK slips into deflation, but a prolonged period of negative inflation remains very unlikely.
  • Eurozone and Japan outlook still weak, despite growing faster than the UK in Q1.

Bank of England National Summary

  • Consumer services and retail sales turnover had continued to grow moderately.
  • Housing market transactions remained lower than a year earlier, with some contacts reporting shortages in the supply of homes for sale as the driver of this weakness.
  • Investment intentions had pointed to moderate growth in capital expenditure over the following twelve months.

May 2015

BCC Economc Review

  • Outlook for the UK economy remains strong, despite GDP growth slowing to three-year low.
  • The UK’s trade deficit widens, but public finances continue to improve.
  • Global outlook remains uncertain as China and US growth slows in Q1.

Bank of England National Summary

  • Consumer services and retail sales turnover had risen moderately.
  • Housing market activity remained below that of a year earlier, with some contacts reporting a slowing in the run-up to the General Election.
  • Investment intentions for the next twelve months were consistent with moderate growth overall.

Bank of England Inflation Report Overview


April 2015

BCC Economic Review

  • UK GDP revised up in Q4 reflecting stronger than expected growth in the services sector
  • BCC and OBR upgrade growth forecasts, aided by falling inflation and unemployment
  • UK economy remains imbalanced with current account deficit at record high

Bank of England National Summary

  • Consumer demand had continued to grow moderately
  • Housing market transactions had picked up modestly since the start of the year, but were lower than a year earlier
  • Investment intentions had pointed to modest growth in capital expenditure over the next twelve months

March 2015 

BCC Economic Review

  • UK GDP unrevised in Q4 with net trade and consumer spending helping to support growth
  • Business investment declines at its fastest rate for six years
  • A period of deflation possible in the coming months, but unlikely to last

Bank of England National Summary

  • Consumer demand had continued to grow steadily
  • There were signs of a pickup in housing market activity since the start of the year
  • Investment intentions for the next twelve months were consistent with moderate growth overall

February 2015

BCC Economic Review

  • UK economic growth reaches seven-year high, despite slowing in Q4
  • Services remains the key driver of growth as construction and industrial output weakens  
  • UK inflation drops to joint record low, reinforcing the case against an early interest rate rise

Bank of England Agents' National Summary

  • Consumer demand had continued to grow at a moderate pace
  • Housing market activity had remained subdued relative to levels in 2014 H1
  • Investment intentions for the next twelve months were consistent with modest growth overall

January 2015

BCC Economic Review

  • Annual UK GDP growth revised down in Q3, as current account deficit reaches record high
  • Q4 QES indicates more growth, with most of the key balances improving in the quarter
  • The UK jobs market continues to strengthen as wages edge above inflation

Bank of England National Summary

  • Retail sales values growth had edged higher and consumer services turnover growth had picked up slightly
  • Housing market activity had been subdued relative to levels a year earlier
  • Investment intentions for the next twelve months had continued to ease slightly, but were consistent with moderate growth overall

December 2014

BCC Economic Review

  • UK economic growth unrevised at 0.7% in Q3
  • Salaries rise faster than inflation for the first time in five years
  • Weakness in Eurozone and in the UK's public finances remain risks to the recovery

Bank of England National Summary

  • Retails sales values growth had eased although there was some optimism about seasonal trading prospects. Customer services values growth had been steady
  • Housing market activity had continued to slow and house price inflation had softened
  • Investment intentions for the next twelve months had eased slighty but remained consistant with moderate overall growth

November 2014

BCC Economic Review

  • UK economy remains strong despite economic growth slowing in Q3
  • The service sector remains the key driver of UK economic growth
  • Falling inflation and lower real wages strengthen the case for holding interest rates at 0.5%

Bank of England National Summary

  • Housing market activity had shown little sign of a significant pickup after its summer slowdown, although it had remained higher than a year ago.
  • Investment intentions for the next twelve months had remained consistant with moderate growth overall, and had eased for manufacturing
  • Manufacturing output growth for the domestic market had eased slightly. Manufacturing export growth had slowed further 

October 2014

BCC Economic Review

  • UK economic growth in Q2 revised up with growth recorded in most sectors
  • UK surpassed pre-recession peak earlier than previously estimated
  • Low inflation and weak wage growth reinforces the case for interest rates

Bank of England National Summary

  • Retail sales values growth had eased, reflecting a continued fall in food price inflation. Consumer services values growth had also edged lower.
  • Housing market demand and supply had become more closely aligned and house price inflation had moderated across much of the United Kingdom.
  • Investment intentions for the next twelve months had remained consistent with moderate growth in capital spending.

For the BCCs Global Economic Review - please visit our International Trade Section - http://www.doncaster-chamber.co.uk/global-economic-review.asp

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